Scientists have predicted that the third Covid-19 wave will be twice more aggressive than the two previous waves.
The second wave which is now on a downward trend peaked on July 10, 2021, with 1,735 cases reported laboratory-confirmed cases.
Dr. Jane Ruth Aceng, while addressing the country on Friday on UBC TV, revealed that projections done by scientists show that the third wave of the pandemic is likely to peak at 4,000 laboratory-confirmed cases daily. This is two times higher than what was being recorded during the second wave.
“This means that 15% of the patients will require admission at the health facility and about 9,331 patients may require High Dependence Unit (HDU)/ Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions,” she said.
She warned that if the public stops or relaxes in its observation of the SOPs, will occur sooner than later.
At the time of filing this report, Uganda had a cumulative of 118,145 confirmed cases. Out of this 95,217 have recovered, 2,939 have died and 471 are inactive admission in government and private health facilities across the country.
Aceng, who was flanked by the Chairperson of the Covid-19 scientific committee, Dr. Misaki Wayengera, and junior health ministers Hanifa Kawoya and Margaret Muhanga, noted that following the partial lifting of the 42day lockdown, there has been a general drop in the COVID trend in the country.
She said there has been a consistent reduction in daily confirmed cases from over 1,000 in July to now 62 cases reported on August 15, 2021, a drop in positivity rate from 22% to an average of 2.8% currently, and a fall in the daily admission of the severe and critically ill patients from 204 at the peak to less than 50 per day now.
She, however, noted that the drop in daily deaths is still low, and attributed it to late reporting of patients, especially those on home-based care, to the hospitals.
“27% of deaths registered occurred minutes within arrival at the Covid-19 treatment units. This could have been averted if patients sought medical care early,” she said.
Aceng revealed that in order to find out the Covid-19 prevalence in the country including the distribution of its variants across the regions, they will conduct a third rapid assessment survey.
The survey will also estimate the proportion of the population exposed to Covid-19 by region, compare the performance of the Covid antigen rapid diagnostic kit and the PCR, explore factors influencing acceptability of the vaccines and other preventive measures and, explore the Covid-19 home remedies used in the country.
[This article originally appeared in the: New Vision]
